People may have noticed something of a trend in those Presidential opinion polls you hear so much about. Something along the lines of every poll is the same, and within the margin of error. With Bush facing a new scandal nearly every week, how is that even possible? Richard Clarke, Bob Woodward, Iraq, etc.. it because John Kerry hasn't stepped up to the plate? No, actually.

While Senator Kerry has been quietly preparing his strategy and making some key decisions about the direction of his campaign, he has effectively removed himself from the action. Not to mention raising a load of money, every penny of which will be necessary. While he has done this, he has been on the ground on a near non stop schedule, delivering speeches, holding town hall meetings, and really meeting the people. He will criticize Bush only to show how he can do better. All that said, we will likely OWN the news cycle when John Kerry announces his running mate (Fingers still crossed for Howard Dean style pick, not Gephardt style pick)

Bush meanwhile is on the defensive. Slipping approval numbers aside though, the actual selection poll hasn't moved too much out of his favor. The dirty truth here folks isn't Kerry's shortcoming, but rather Bush's biggest strength, and only area he can rely on.

I work with someone who is an unabashed Bush lover. She has a family of five, lower middle class. While she knows that politically, she doesn't support George Bush's ideas, probably would not support war, she would vote for him against anyone because "he is the most godly President we have ever had. He knows the bible!" It is this person that is the archetype of hard Bush support. George W. Augustus Bush can do no wrong in the eyes of the church. It's these people that are likely getting hurt the most economically, that would drop dead for Bush if he asked, just to fill their own socially conservative agenda. Bush has this market cornered like Microsoft.

What can we do? Well dirty truth number 2 is that we probably won't be able to do much to convert these people, unless W abandoned the church and returned to coke..publicly. Since that isn't going to happen, here's what we can do. John Kerry actually has a base of people who are likely just as rabid, which is why his numbers haven't moved either. All we need to do to win this election is shore up that base, and keep it energized. I'm going to plug Howard Dean or a lesser extent, Wes Clark for VP here just because its my post and I can. Don't worry about or chastise Ralph Nader, embrace his ideas and his supporters, make it pointless for him to run.

The final dirty secret of the poll numbers are that independents and swing voters by and large are A) not fans of W, and B) likely to break for the challenger in November. We can see this trend already. While George Bush has been gaining ground in states he would already have won, John Kerry is now (according to Rasmussen) ahead in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Which is more important? To this extent, the national polls aren't all that static, just moving around in different places and more or less neutralizing each other. As any liberal blogger will remind you, the national numbers are useless when the electoral college is in play. Look at Albert 2000. So then, aren't we doing just what we should be doing?