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4/15/2004

200 Days 

The following events take place in real time from the day of April 15 to November 2. George Bush has been preparing for this time since his slim and shady victory in 2000. A new democratic heir to the throne, John Kerry, has risen from the roller coaster primary dust to take Bush on. The story up to this point:

The time, is April 2003. George Bush continues to enjoy extremely high approval ratings as he nears the end of "combat" stages of the Iraq war. The public overwhelmingly backed the military action, as they believed that they were in immediate danger. Democrats, meanwhile, considered Bush to be unbeatable coming off of the 2002 republican mandate. They struggle to find a strong candidate within a pool of no name candidates after their biggest faces, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, decide against running.

Flash forward to June 2003. The American public is growing increasingly weary with our presence in Iraq, and reasons for being there. George Bush's numbers still look good for re-election, but the slumping economy and continued questions about the war on terror begin to dog him and his aura of unbeatability. Democrats, although still afraid to break out with criticism against the extremely popular President, begin to find their voice. There are 9 democratic candidates for President: Bob Graham, Dick Gephardt, John Edwards, Carol Mosely Braun, Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich, Howard Dean, John Kerry, and early front runner and VP candidate under Al Gore, Joe Leibermann. A 10th candidate, Wesley Clark, was being pushed to run by both grassroots supporters and DNC brass alike. He joined the race later on in the year.

We move now to December 2003. Howard Dean has stunned the country by becoming the odds on favorite to win the Democratic nomination. An Al Gore endorsement puts him along his way, only to begin to become a bit tainted with continued gaffes and missteps. Wes Clark is considered his only real opponent, as well as a fan favorite to be on a 1-2 team with Dean. Dick Gephardt is considered an outside shot. John Kerry and John Edwards were in danger of becoming also rans. The rest of the candidates remain second tier. Howard Dean's message of complete political reform resonates with many, as he smashes fundraising records and gained incredible media coverage and popularity, as well as gives the democratic party a backbone, with unabashed criticism at President Bush. The President, meanwhile, began to feel the effects of democratic pounding. Still viewed as a favorite, he tried to remain above the fray.

January/February 2004. Engaging in an ad war with Dick Gephardt mixed with media saturation of "I have a scream," Howard Dean's ship sunk in Iowa, with a disappointing third. John Kerry and John Edwards, with their incredible come from behind results, became the new race. Dean, after so much excitement near the end of 2003, was only able to come up with one primary victory. His home state of Vermont, in a largely symbolic vote, gave Dean many delegates weeks after he dropped out of the race.

March 2004. John Kerry wins 9 out of 10 races on super Tuesday, and forces his last viable opponent from the race, effectively clinching the Democratic nomination. George Bush, suddenly beatable and being dogged by a growing insurgency in Iraq, quickly responds with an attempt to define Kerry as a crazy liberal. The attempts are undercut by new interest in the 9-11 commission, and revelations that George Bush didn't pay enough attention to the terror threat prior to the horiffic attacks of September 2001.

The Present: George Bush's 40 plus million dollar ad blitz has failed. More of the polled public, although not being familiar with Kerry, choose him over Bush. An economy showing slight signs of recovery are not enough to combat George Bush's lack of plans in Iraq, and faltering support for his conduct as a president and in the area of foreign policy. The candidates are neck in neck, with Kerry having nowhere to go but up. Both sides struggle to define the race. Welcome to 200 days.

What will happen in these 200 days? What issue will frame the debate in this election? Will the economy continue to rebound in the short term? Will the Bush deficit play a pivotal role? Will Iraq continue to dwindle into chaos? Will John Kerry be able to warm up and define himself to voters? Who will be his vice presidential choice and how will it effect the race? Stay tuned folks, we're in for a ride.
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